ZenithOptimedia’s optimistic predictions for online is holding
steady. The Publicis Groupe media buyer’s latest forecast expects
global internet ad spend to grow 26.7 percent and break through the
10 percent share barrier this year—a year earlier than Zenith predicted
just three months ago. By 2010 Zenith predicts online will attract
13.6 percent of all advertising, well ahead of the company’s previous
prediction of 12.3 percent. As for actual dollar amounts, Zenith sees worldwide online ad spend this year of $52.2 billion, $64 billion in 2009 and $78.1 billion in 2010.
The sunny views for online advertising are included in a report that
expects darkening clouds for growth in North America and Europe: Zenith
has downgraded its forecast for the former to 3.5 from 3.7 percent,
while growth for the latter is expected to end up 3.7 percent higher
instead the earlier prediction of 3.9 percent. But thanks to developing
world’s growing ad spend, Zenith has nevertheless upgraded its overall
spending forecast slightly, expecting a 6.6 boost in 2008, up slightly
from the 6.5 percent growth predicted in its March forecast.
The increasing economic uncertainty that Zenith notes is swirling in
Europe and the North America will accelerate the shift to online,
Zenith said. Aside from that, the report cited improved online video
and targeting abilities as further reasons for marketers to shift more
of their budgets to the web. Still, Zenith’s positive predictions for
online ad spend comes after several other, less sanguine industry
reports. Just over a month ago, Lehman Brothers analyst Doug Anmuth said
online ad spending in the U.S. will be up 23 percent, down from his
previous call for 24 percent growth. Meanwhile, display growth has been
trending lower, according to TNS’ look at Q1, when display gained only 8.5 percent compared to the previous year’s doubly-digit quarterly growth rates.
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